160 research outputs found
Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges
In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about
Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric
forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a
very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense
also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the
paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then
proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original
idea.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0706.3188,
arXiv:1604.04173, arXiv:1709.06233, arXiv:1203.5422 by other author
Hierarchical independent component analysis: A multi-resolution non-orthogonal data-driven basis
A new method named Hierarchical Independent Component Analysis is presented, particularly
suited for dealing with two problems regarding the analysis of high-dimensional
and complex data: dimensional reduction and multi-resolution analysis. It takes into account
the Blind Source Separation framework, where the purpose is the research of a basis
for a dimensional reduced space to represent data, whose basis elements represent physical
features of the phenomenon under study. In this case orthogonal basis could be not
suitable, since the orthogonality introduces an artificial constraint not related to the phenomenological
properties of the analyzed problem. For this reason this new approach is
introduced. It is obtained through the integration between Treelets and Independent Component
Analysis, and it is able to provide a multi-scale non-orthogonal data-driven basis.
Furthermore a strategy to perform dimensional reduction with a non orthogonal basis is
presented and the theoretical properties of Hierarchical Independent Component Analysis
are analyzed. Finally HICA algorithm is tested both on synthetic data and on a real dataset
regarding electroencephalographic traces
Local inference for functional data on manifold domains using permutation tests
Pini and Vantini (2017) introduced the interval-wise testing procedure which
performs local inference for functional data defined on an interval domain,
where the output is an adjusted p-value function that controls for type I
errors. We extend this idea to a general setting where domain is a Riemannian
manifolds. This requires new methodology such as how to define adjustment sets
on product manifolds and how to approximate the test statistic when the domain
has non-zero curvature. We propose to use permutation tests for inference and
apply the procedure in three settings: a simulation on a "chameleon-shaped"
manifold and two applications related to climate change where the manifolds are
a complex subset of and , respectively. We note the
tradeoff between type I and type II errors: increasing the adjustment set
reduces the type I error but also results in smaller areas of significance.
However, some areas still remain significant even at maximal adjustment
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